Does anyone watch or care about the Oscars anymore? I can’t tell if they are completely passé or not. I just think that this year is a better field than we’ve seen in a really long time;I was surprised the other day to find that I’m actually interested in the outcomes. (Still, I think we’ll be TiVoing it so I can fast-forward through the red carpet blather and the Very Special Parts. Which means I’ll be skipping Twitter so as not to be spoiled.)
Here’s how I think it will all go down:
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
The nominees are Amy Adams (“Doubt”), Penélope Cruz (“Vicky Cristina Barcelona”), Viola Davis (“Doubt”), Taraji P. Henson (“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”), Marisa Tomei (“The Wrestler”).
My thoughts: this is going to be an Academy-politics vote. Tomei and Adams fall into the “The Nomination is Her Reward” category, especially after Marisa’s marked lack of career acclaim since the 1992 win for “My Cousin Vinny”. I think Davis, Henson and Cruz are slightly a toss-up.
I didn’t see Cruz but have read mixed reactions around her nomination. I think that between Viola Davis (whose performance was compelling but very brief — and who unfortunately has a co-nominee from the same film, which will split “Doubt” voters) and Taraji Henson (whose performance was compelling and longer… though she didn’t get to have a scene where she cried so well that her nose was running the whole time), the edge goes to Henson for what I am calling “The Button Factor”: it got lots of noms but isn’t good enough to go all the way… so they have to give some hardware out wherever they can.
Prediction: Taraji P. Henson
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The nominees are “Frozen River”, “Happy-Go-Lucky”, “In Bruges”, “Milk” and “WALL-E.”
I think “In Bruges” is too European, “Frozen River” is too under the radar, and “WALL-E” didn’t have enough dialogue. I think “Happy-Go-Lucky” will garner some guilt votes, but I think “Milk” will come out on top, even though the Academy doesn’t love giving writing awards to true stories.
Prediction: “Milk”
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The nominees are “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”, “Doubt”, “Frost/Nixon”, “The Reader” and “Slumdog Millionaire.”
I think the two front runners are “Slumdog” and “Benjamin Button.” I would lean strongly toward “Slumdog”… except for The Button Factor:
Say you’re an Academy voter and you’re looking for an excuse to give a writing award to “Button” here: the original story is by F. Scott Fitzgerald, allowing one to feel literarily smug. Plus it was actually a short story with little resemblance to the final movie. So one could internally justify that Eric Roth et al. had to do a lot of work to flesh out the final product, etc. (A true adaptation for the screen, in other words.)
Prediction: “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
“Bolt” and “Kung-Fu Panda” were lucky to even be nominated, really. There’s no question here.
Prediction: “WALL-E”
ART DIRECTION
The nominees are “Changeling,” “Benjamin Button”, “The Dark Knight”, “The Duchess”, and “Revolutionary Road.”
I wouldn’t be too surprised if “Changeling” snuck away with this, but that’s a dark horse. The Button Factor is strong here.
Prediction: “Benjamin Button”
COSTUME DESIGN
The nominees are “Australia,” “Benjamin Button”, “The Duchess”, “Milk” and “Revolutionary Road.”
I think “Australia” joins The Nomination Is the Reward club, here. I think that “Revolutionary Road” and “Milk” are both decade-focused American films that cancel one another out for costume. I didn’t see “The Duchess” but I understand the costume work was exceptional. It could go “Duchess” or “Button,” but I think “Button” ends up with it.
Prediction: “Benjamin Button”
MAKEUP
The nominees are “Benjamin Button”, “Dark Knight”, and “Hellboy II: The Golden Army.”
Most of the aging effects that made “Button” so amazing were actually CGI, so you can’t really count it for a makeup win. It could go either way after that… but I think that voting for “Hellboy” makes the gray-haired Academy feel cool and hip.
Prediction: “Hellboy II: The Golden Army”
CINEMATOGRAPHY
The nominees are “Changeling,” “Benjamin Button”, “The Dark Knight”, “The Reader”, and “Slumdog Millionaire”.
This one is hard. I think that all the movies were likely beautiful in their own way, and that a lot will be in the eye of the beholder and in the politics. Still, I suspect that this is where the Slumdog Sweep kicks off.
Prediction: “Slumdog Millionaire”
LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
I have no clue. I’m picking based on which name I like best.
Prediction: “The Pig”
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
The nominees are Josh Brolin (“Milk”), Robert Downey Jr. (“Tropic Thunder”), Philip Seymour Hoffman (“Doubt”), Heath Ledger (“The Dark Knight”) and Michael Shannon (“Revolutionary Road”).
Like “WALL-E” for best animated, this is one of the evening’s no-brainers.
Prediction: Heath Ledger
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
The nominees are “The Betrayal”, “Encounters at the End of the World,” “The Garden,” “Man on Wire,” and “Trouble the Water.”
Haven’t seen a one of these, so I’m going with the odds-on favorite.
Prediction: “Man on Wire”
DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
No idea. Picking based on the name.
Prediction: “Smile Pinki”
VISUAL EFFECTS
Nominees are “Benjamin Button,” “Dark Knight” and “Iron Man”. It won’t be “Iron Man” — yet, I didn’t see “Dark Knight” so it’s hard to really hold that up to “Button” fairly. Still… the Button Factor.
Prediction: “Benjamin Button”
SOUND EDITING
SOUND MIXING
I don’t know jack about these two categories: I’m not enough of a film production buff to understand the difference between them. But I think one will go to “Slumdog” and one will go to “WALL-E.”
FILM EDITING
The nominees are “Benjamin Button”, “Dark Knight,” “Frost/Nixon”, “Milk” and “Slumdog Millionaire.” I don’t know a lot about editing but I’m pretty sure we’re solidly in Slumdog Sweep.
Prediction: “Slumdog Millionaire”
ORIGINAL SCORE
I think A.R. Rahman is the clear favorite here for “Slumdog Millionaire.” If there’s a spoiler, it could be “Button” or “Defiance”… but I really doubt it.
Prediction: A.R. Rahman for “Slumdog Millionaire”
ORIGINAL SONG
If Bruce Springsteen had been nominated for “The Wrestler,” he’d be my pick. But, instead I think “Slumdog” takes it. I think that the M.I.A. association on “O Saya” might be a double-edged sword (so pregnant at the Grammys! so edgy! so controversial with that Tamil Tiger terrorism business!), so I’ll say that “Jai Ho” gets the nod. Plus it’s just so darn uplifting. I hope there’s a Bollywood-style dance number for this song tonight.
Prediction: “Jai Ho” from “Slumdog Millionaire”
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
I’m picking on popularity.
Prediction: “Waltz With Bashir”
DIRECTING
The nominees are “Benjamin Button”, “Frost/Nixon”, “Milk”, “The Reader,” and “Slumdog Millionaire.” I think this is a slam-dunk for Slumdog.
Prediction: Danny Boyle, “Slumdog Millionaire”
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
The nominees are Anne Hathaway (“Rachel Getting Married”), Angelina Jolie (“Changeling”), Melissa Leo (“Frozen River”), Meryl Streep (“Doubt”), and Kate Winslet (“The Reader”)
The only performance I actually saw here was Angelina Jolie’s… and I think we can all agree that one should only cry “The dingo ate my baby! That’s not my baby! Where’s my baby?” with welling eyes so many times in a 2+-hour movie. It’s certainly not the cornerstone of a Best Actress award, anyway.
So, of the rest, I think the Academy decides for Hathaway and Leo that “The Nomination is Her Reward.” (I would love to see Hathaway get it but I don’t think people are past thinking of her as Princess Mia Thermopolis, just yet.)
I think then you’ve got the toss-up between Winslet and Streep. I think Streep would get it free and clear… if not for the cloudiness of the whole Winslet nomination problem. If Streep in “Doubt” were up against Winslet in either single role, it’s clear cut. But both together muddies the waters.
So, when all that Oscar trickiness is said and done, you’ve got voters who will either decide that Winslet’s performances in “Revolutionary Road” and “The Reader” together were good enough that she deserves the 2009 BA… or you’ve got voters who aren’t all that sure what was going there, and Kate Winslet cancels herself out.
I think Streep deserves it, but I suspect Winslet wins it.
Prediction: Kate Winslet, “The Reader”
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Richard Jenkins in “The Visitor” and Frank Langella in “Frost/Nixon” join “The Nomination Is His Reward” Club here.
“Benjamin Button” was pretty but Brad Pitt wasn’t Best-Actor-great in it; the CGI carried most of the load.
I think it’s between Sean Penn in “Milk” and Mickey Rourke in “The Wrestler.”
And I think that Hollywood loves a feel-good happy ending, especially when it turns out to be a true one.
Prediction: Mickey Rourke, “The Wrestler”
BEST MOTION PICTURE
The nominees are “Benjamin Button,” “Frost/Nixon,” “Milk,” “The Reader,” and “Slumdog Millionaire.” I think anything other than Slumdog counts as an upset.
Prediction: “Slumdog Millionaire”
